Showing posts with label ipo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ipo. Show all posts

Saturday, 30 November 2013

Twitter IPO Deserves the Hype, If Not the Investment

No matter where Twitter ends its first day of trading – or its first year or decade for that matter – it deserves the hype.
Forget valuation, which is a red herring anyway. Forget the questions about business models, revenue projections, talk of bubbles and complaints about 140 characters. Twitter's emergence as a public company is worthy of a moment to sit back and see the magic of the free markets in this nation and the uniqueness of our American entrepreneurial experience.
Haters gonna hate, and Twitter has faced its share of opprobrium over the years. The idea of 140 characters was too limiting, too much a sign of the decay of our culture, where we sacrifice good grammar and usage for text-like chatter that gets no one anything but a wrap on the knuckles from the nun who taught us in second grade. Strunk and White are turning over in their graves.
Twitter also faced questions about revenue models. Sure, Rihanna and Miley love you, but how do you book revenue on them loving you? And how do you make profit from that revenue in a way that doesn't drive away your user base? Evan Williams, Biz Stone and Jack Dorsey were derided as terrible managers with their heads more in the clouds than in the books.
Yes, seldom is heard an encouraging word about Twitter. That negative buzz has only gotten louder as Twitter approached its bell-ringing at the corner of Broad and Wall. Twitter, according to thousands of tweets from the financial chatterati, isn't worth the price.
Maybe or maybe not. But Twitter needs to be celebrated by entrepreneurs everywhere. This is what hundreds of companies in Silicon Valley, Silicon Alley, Silicon Gulch and anywhere in between want to be when they grow up. Little girls dress as Cinderella because they want to be Princess Kate. Twitter's rise is Cinderella for geeks and innovators and risk-takers. Events like today's market debut are what entrepreneurs dream about, even if, during waking hours, they give lip service to just wanting to solve people's problems or save sea lions. Deep down, they want success and wealth, and that's OK.
Twitter didn't solve a problem. No one lamented how difficult it was to communicate in 140-character constraints. Instead, it started a revolution in communication, allowed us to share information more efficiently and made us call a pound sign a hashtag.
And, while we hear that so few people use it, so the IPO isn't worth the money, we forget that, well, so many people use it. For Christ's sake, @Pontifex is saving souls with it. (And posting selfies, for which the aforementioned second-grade nuns would probably make him kneel on No. 2 pencils for an hour as penance.)
Anyone who has ever started a company knows how hard it is to reach a day like this. You have an idea, build code around it, discard the code you built, throw out one of your founding partners, give up, then come back and write new code. And all that happens before your first venture round.

Saturday, 23 November 2013

The 10 Biggest IPOs Ever

The 10 Biggest IPOs EverTwitter raised the price range for its IPO to $23 to $25 on Monday, meaning the company now has the potential to raise up to $2 billion. If it prices at the high end of its range, Twitter would have a market value of as much as $13.6 billion.
But despite being one of the most talked-about IPOs of the year, Twitter’s initial public offering is expected to be nowhere near as large as those of companies such as Visa and Facebook. Last year, Facebook raised $16 billion in an IPO that valued the social media giant at $104 billion. However, it's worth noting that Facebook shares, which debuted at $38, lost more than half their value within three months of going public.
As Twitter prepares for its public debut, check out these 10 U.S. companies that had the biggest IPOs ever, as compiled by S&P Capital IQ.

Will Investors Ever Learn to Avoid Money-Losing Companies?

Will Investors Ever Learn to Avoid Money-Losing Companies?If you are an investor, you can be comfortable avoiding the 2013 crop of initial public stock offerings. After all, according to Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida, Twitter, which lost $79 million in 2012 and is poised for a bigger 2013 loss, is hardly alone in losing money as it prepares to go public. Ritter’s statistics say that 68 percent of this year’s IPOs were also losing money.
Why are investors bidding on the shares? It certainly is not because the price of their stock is less than the current value of their future cash flows. After all, based on their history, there is no basis for concluding that these unprofitable companies will ever make money.
But that’s the beauty of the stock story for a money-losing company. If it were making a profit before its IPO, it would be harder to make outrageous forecasts about how much more money the company will make in the future.
But when a company is losing money, the sky’s the limit when it comes to predicting how bright its future will be.
Along with that ability to forecast a spectacularly profitable future is the fine functioning of one of finance’s most basic laws: momentum. That is -- a stock that is going up will rise more just because it is going up.
More specifically, when there is no real positive cash flows on which to value a stock, its price will rise because investors who do not own the shares will be afraid they are missing the party. So they decide to buy the shares. And if they are lucky, their buying will drive up the shares further, which will attract a new crop of fools -- I mean, investors.
28 tech companies have gone public so far in 2013, but this year’s post-IPO performance has been the best since the peak of the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. On average, those 28 stocks have gone up 39 percent in the first month after they went public.
Although this year’s crop has been largely made up of money losers, Ritter argues that over a longer period of time, the companies that go public with a profit do better in the stock market. His analysis of profitable tech companies that went public between 1990 and 2011 found that their stock prices rose 55 percent in the first three years of trading, while their money-losing brethren enjoyed only a 22 percent rise during those three years.
Is there another bubble brewing? Maybe -- but we are nowhere near the point of explosion. We will know we are there when we get into a taxi and the driver is giving us hot tips on the latest IPO that he heard from the hedge fund honcho he just dropped off on Wall Street.
In the meantime, Ritter’s statistics suggest that you would be better off avoiding the money-losing IPOs and stick to companies that take the trouble to make a profit before they try to sell you their shares for the first time.
Unfortunately, the hapless investor is left with a very fundamental problem. There is no reliable basis on which to explain why stocks go up and down. You're probably better off just investing in a stock index fund with low expenses than gambling on an individual stock.
That said, if you’re running a startup that has at least $100 million in revenues and is growing over 30 percent a year, odds are good that you can hire several investment banks and they will be happy to take your company public -- whether it makes a profit or not